(Togo First) - With cotton production declining and farmers aging, Togo is banking on an ambitious push to revive the sector. The goal is to exceed 92,500 tons in the next season. But unpredictable weather, a lack of young workers, and rising competition from other crops make the outcome far from certain.

After two difficult seasons, Togo hopes to revive its struggling cotton industry. For the 2024-2025 season, cotton farmers have set an ambitious target of producing 92,500 tons of seed cotton, a more than 50% increase from the last harvest. But this goal comes with major challenges for a sector weakened by pests, climate shocks, and declining participation.

Last season, production reached just 60,500 tons, despite slight yield improvements at 797 kilograms per hectare. The number of cotton farmers continues to fall, with only 76,000 growers involved this season compared to 111,000 in 2020-2021.

“The farming population is aging, young people are turning away. The entire cotton sector is at risk,” warned Koussouwè Kourouféi, president of the National Federation of Cotton Producers (FNGPC).

In response, authorities have launched the planting season earlier to take advantage of favorable weather conditions. So far, 118,000 hectares have been sown, the highest figure in five years. But expanding land alone is not enough. The government has introduced a stronger recovery plan, including training for 120,000 farmers, expanded irrigation, support for mechanization, and the introduction of regenerative agriculture practices. Public-private partnerships are also being explored to support these efforts.

Another key measure is maintaining the purchase price of seed cotton at CFA300 per kilogram, despite global price pressures. After three years of decline, world cotton prices have fallen another 14% in 2024. The government will also continue input subsidies to reduce production costs for farmers.

However, the structural challenges remain significant. Togo’s cotton production is now half of what it was in 2017, when output exceeded 135,000 tons. The initial promise of reaching 200,000 tons after the privatization of NSCT seems out of reach today. Unlike Benin and Burkina Faso, which have doubled production in five years, Togo is still struggling to reverse the decline.

Several persistent headwinds threaten the recovery. Weather risks, such as droughts or heavy rains, can derail even the best-organized efforts. Pest infestations also continue to damage crops despite awareness campaigns.

Farmers are increasingly shifting to food crops like maize, soybeans, and yams, which offer faster returns and lower risks. “Cotton pays less, requires more work, and payments often arrive late. It is no longer motivating,” said a young farmer from the Central region during a FOPAT meeting.

Soybeans, in particular, are gaining ground due to strong international demand and the expansion of local processing units, which now provide more stable and better-paying outlets.

Governance issues also cloud the sector’s future. Olam, the private partner managing NSCT, has provided little clarity on its long-term commitments. Some question the industrial strategy and real investment in local processing.

The dream of building a fully integrated cotton value chain, from farm to finished textiles, remains unfulfilled. Still, hopes have been renewed with the launch of Togo’s first textile factories this month under the Industrial Platform of Adétikopé (PIA). This industrial shift is still at an early stage and will need to demonstrate its ability to absorb national production and generate competitive local value.

Beyond production volumes, the entire appeal of cotton farming is under threat. With lower profitability, tough labor, and uncertain income, young people are turning away from cotton.

“The model needs to be rethought, or we risk reaching a dead end,” said one agriculture official.

Whether Togo can meet its 92,500-ton goal depends on favorable rainfall, mobilization of producers, and the sector’s ability to reinvent itself. Behind this production target lies the future of Togo’s cotton industry and the livelihoods of thousands of farmers.

Article originally written in French by Fiacre KAKPO

Edited in English by Firmine AIZAN