Togo Records Sharpest Drop in Regional Market Debt in H1 2025

Finance
Tuesday, 08 July 2025 05:36
Togo Records Sharpest Drop in Regional Market Debt in H1 2025

(Togo First) - Togo recorded the sharpest decline in public debt among West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) member states during the first half of 2025. Data from UMOA-Titres, the regional agency in charge of facilitating the issuance of public securities in the WAEMU region, showed Togo's outstanding debt stood at 1,959.50 billion CFA francs by the end of June, a 2.90 percent decrease from December 2024.

This trend stands in contrast to the broader regional dynamic. Over the same period, countries like Senegal saw their debt stock increase by 5.71 percent, while Benin's rose by 2.28 percent and Côte d'Ivoire's by 1.46 percent. Niger was the only other country to report a decline, at 0.93 percent, though to a lesser extent than Togo.

The drop is primarily due to fewer new debt issuances combined with accelerated repayments. Between January and June, Togo raised 318.76 billion CFA francs, a 32 percent drop from 468.75 billion CFA francs during the same period last year. Concurrently, repayments increased by 39 percent, from 322.55 billion to 448.30 billion CFA francs.

This net debt reduction of over 129 billion CFA francs aligns with the national debt management strategy, which aims to rebalance the portfolio structure. Currently, domestic debt makes up 57.67 percent of the total stock, representing 39.89 percent of GDP. By the end of 2025, authorities aim for a more balanced split, targeting 55 percent external debt and 45 percent domestic debt. This shift would allow for longer repayment maturities and access to more favorable financial terms through concessional or semi-concessional loans from partners such as the World Bank, BOAD, or AfDB.

One persistent challenge, however, is the dominance of short-term securities in the domestic debt portfolio. As of late June, 89 percent of Togo's debt on the regional market consisted of Treasury Bills, or BAT, with maturities under one year. Only 11 percent were Treasury Bonds, or OAT, which have longer durations. This profile creates significant refinancing pressure in a regional environment characterized by rising interest rates.

This vulnerability is evident in Togo's yield curve. Returns climb as high as 8.04 percent on one-year securities before falling on longer maturities, settling around 6 percent for five to ten-year bonds. This unusual configuration indicates both investor nervousness in the short term and a more moderate, or confident, appetite for long-term investments.

While the decrease in outstanding debt is seen as positive from a budget management perspective, it remains uncertain whether the government can sustain this trajectory through the second half of the year.

Fiacre E. Kakpo

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