Togo: Warmer Gulf waters drive unseasonal rain, heat to persist through end-February

Economic governance

Wednesday, 11 February 2026 12:21

Togo: Warmer Gulf waters drive unseasonal rain, heat to persist through end-February

(Togo First) - The end of last year and the start of the new one were marked by a climate anomaly in Togo. Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea rose by 0.65 degrees Celsius in December 2025 compared with the 1993–2023 average. The increase, recorded during the harmattan season, disrupted wind and rainfall patterns in the southern part of the country.

The data were presented at a conference organised by the Ministry of Environment and the University of Lomé, which brought together climatologists and government technical agencies.

“Higher sea surface temperatures increase evaporation and raise atmospheric moisture levels. This weakens the harmattan and helps explain the unusual rainfall recorded in December and January,” said Latifou Issaou, director general of ANAMET, Togo’s national meteorological agency.

Strong Winds and Unseasonal Rain

Although experts prefer the term “climate variability” to “anomaly,” between December 2025 and January 2026, 114 people were affected and 101 homes were damaged by strong winds, compared with no reported casualties during the same period a year earlier. Over the same timeframe, losses from vegetation fires declined, falling from 148 tonnes of destroyed crops to 17 tonnes.

Researchers said the persistence of moist maritime airflows, instead of the typically dry harmattan winds, contributed to the unusual rainfall. These developments come against a broader warming trend, with sea levels rising at an estimated 1.8 mm per year between 1950 and 1973, followed by a faster rate of increase after 1993.

Heat to Persist Through End-February

In the short term, ANAMET forecasts maximum temperatures of between 33 and 40 degrees Celsius through the end of February, with dry haze expected across most of the country. Only the Maritime and Plateaux regions could see scattered, localised rainfall.

The sequence follows a year marked by below-average rainfall in 2025, when the national average stood at 987.8 mm, compared with 1,162.8 mm in 2024 and a five-year average of 1,198.3 mm.

In response, experts are calling for stronger early warning systems and adjustments to the agricultural calendar to better reflect seasonal shifts. Although Togo accounted for just 0.07% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2018, it remains highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Ayi Renaud Dossavi

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