Togo Forecasts Sharp Drop In Project Grants Through 2028

Economic governance

Wednesday, 21 January 2026 12:17

Togo Forecasts Sharp Drop In Project Grants Through 2028

(Togo First) - The Togolese government anticipates a sharp decline in project grants between 2026 and 2028. According to revenue forecasts for the period, grants from international institutions are expected to fall from 166.9 billion CFA francs in 2026 to 70.9 billion CFA francs in 2027, and then to 31.6 billion CFA francs in 2028.

In two years, these financing flows would shrink by more than fivefold. In nominal terms, the loss would reach nearly 135 billion CFA francs between 2026 and 2028.

These project grants consist of external aid, sometimes classified as non-tax resources in a broad sense. They mainly come from grants from international institutions, notably the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, within the framework of their various programs.

For the 2026 fiscal year, the Togolese State has planned special allocation accounts to channel financing from the Bretton Woods institutions for a total amount set at 48.68 billion CFA francs. These funds are intended for three programs. The first is the National Non-Contributory Social Protection Program, which is to finance the Transformative Social Assistance for Resilience in Togo (ASTRE), covering cash transfers to vulnerable households. The second is the Administration Capacity Building and Modernization for Service Delivery Program (PMADS), focused on improving administrative performance, public service quality, and governance. The third is the Sustainable Agricultural Transformation Program in Togo (PTDAT), which supports the implementation of the Togo Agricultural Modernization Program (ProMAT) 2025-2034.

Regarding the IMF, the country benefits from a 42-month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) approved in March 2024 for a total amount of approximately 240 billion CFA francs, or some $400 million.

All together, project grants still represent more than 10% of budgetary revenue in 2026. They would fall to less than 2% in 2028 according to current projections, barring a major change by then.

At the same time, alongside the anticipated drop in project grants, tax revenues are forecast to rise slightly. They are expected to represent 1,338 billion CFA francs in 2026, then 1,474 billion CFA francs in 2027, and 1,620 billion CFA francs in 2028.

Such a trajectory raises the question of the State's capacity to finance public investment without massive external support. It also raises the question of the social sustainability of an increased fiscal effort on households and businesses.

In any case, the coming months and future budget projections will indicate whether these developments reflect the end of project cycles without equivalent renewal, or if the government is assuming a progressive refocusing toward budgetary autonomy.

Ayi Renaud Dossavi

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