Socio-political crisis must end for Togo’s economy to restart fully in 2019, AfDB says

Economic governance
Friday, 18 January 2019 15:05
Socio-political crisis must end for Togo’s economy to restart fully in 2019, AfDB says

(Togo First) - Togo’s “GDP growth should reach 5% in 2019 and 5.3% in 2020, given that the ongoing political crisis is solved and public and private investments improve”, says the African Development Bank (AfDB) in its 2019 Africa economic outlook report, released January 17.

Regarding the crisis mentioned by the report, it began mid-2017 opposing the actual government by the main opposition coalition which announces new protests on Jan 26. The crisis was marked by multiple socio-political protests paired with a contraction of public investment, of more than 40%. However, the pan-African bank expects Togo’s economy to get as dynamic as in 2016.

In detail, inflation, which was negative in 2017 and relatively low (0.4%) in 2018, “should stand at 1.2% in 2019 and 2% in 2020”, AfDB forecasts. Similarly, budget deficit should improve to 1.6% of GDP in 2019, after being at 9.6%, 2.1%, and 6.7% in 2016, 2017 and 2018 respectively. 

As for current balance deficit, it also is expected to fall, from about 7.9% of GDP in 2018 to 6.8% in 2019, as a result of better clinker, cotton and phosphate exports.

Budget adjustment adopted in 2017 with the IMF should bring debt level below 70% of GDP this year, against 82% in 2016. This figure would align with standards set by the WAEMU commission.

Fiacre E. Kakpo

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